Tagpuan Ateneo

Navigating Stormy Waters: Analyzing and Responding to Polarization and Populism

RESEARCH FELLOWS: 

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Enrico Antonio La Viña, PhD candidate in Political Science at the University of California,
Davis and Jerome Cruz, PhD candidate in political economy, methodology, and comparativepolitics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

PROJECT DESCRIPTION:

This study examines why many Filipinos who have benefited from economic growth—those who are no longer poor but remain insecure—have supported illiberal populists like Rodrigo Duterte and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The research argues that this paradox stems from premature deindustrialization, where the country shifted from agriculture to services without building a strong manufacturing base. This transformation produced a large class of “non-poor but precarious” workers—call center agents, gig workers, sales staff, and contractual employees—who live with uncertainty, high costs, and urban disorder. Their anxieties are not just economic but also political, fueling demand for strongman leadership that promises order amid instability associated with liberal democratic politics.

COMMUNITY/COMMUNITIES:

Supporters of Duterte and Marcos Jr.; service-sector and urban informal workers; and the “non-poor but insecure” urban classes who are upwardly mobile yet vulnerable.

INNOVATIVE RESEARCH DESIGN:

The project used Bayesian process tracing of key evidence on support for Duterte and Marcos—including quantitative analysis of national surveys and existing ethnographies—to evaluate competing explanations for support for illiberal leaders. Dialogues were then conducted in two phases: (1) presenting and validating findings with civil society and church-based organizations, and (2) development of a civic toolkit translating research insights into advocacy and education materials for further dialogue and democratic reform.

KEY INSIGHTS:

Economic insecurity—not just poverty or disinformation—helps explain enthusiasm for illiberal politics. Addressing socioeconomic precarity can curb populism by showing that democracy delivers on social and economic rights—through better housing, transport, healthcare, and decent work that make democracy felt in daily life. It also shows that political polarization in the Philippines has socio-economic roots.