2023 Working Paper (2023-03)

Working Paper 2023-03
Reliability and Forced Outages: Survival Analysis with Recurrent Events

Majah-Leah V. Ravago, Karl Robert Jandoc, and Miah Maye Pormon

Abstract 

This paper empirically investigates the contributory factors to forced outage declarations of power plants through a survival analysis model with recurring events. Using plant-level data in the Philippines, we find that higher reserve margins, higher share capacity (a measure of concentration) and the number of planned outages and days since the last maintenance (preventive maintenance indicators) reduce the risk of forced outages. On the other hand, an increase in the use rate (a measure of the intensity of power plant utilization), and geothermal, solar and biodiesel plants correlate positively to more forced outages. Focusing on episodes where outages were disproportionately higher in the past decade— we find that thinning reserve margin correlates significantly to forced outage incidence. This may indicate potential tacit coordination among generators to withhold capacity in the short run.

Keywords: forced outage; survival analysis; recurring events; Philippines